Time Travel

In H.G. Well's novel The Time Machine, and others of that genre, authors have repeatedly explored themes of time travelling. Describing with elaborate detail conceptions of yet to be invented machinery, they posit remarkable scientific advances that would permit those gifted designers to operate their ingenious contrivances, affording conveyance with swift dispatch, to points distant in temporal space.

Oftentimes such adventures involve a journey into the past, depicting fascinating encounters with terrifying saurian beasts, as hapless professional hunter protagonists consider the potential butterfly effect of stalking dinosaurs; could their actions alter the course of evolution and threaten their very existence by eliminating a genetic precursor to mankind's development?

Stephen King, in 11/22/1963, wondrously considers the appeal of traversing the decades to attempt to change the outcome of the course of history, by preventing events that irrefutably decree the destiny of their aftermath. How different could America's present have been if JFK's life would have been spared, thwarting Oswald's plan and making his failed attempt merely a historical footnote?

Our time travelling exercise today will not reveal a compelling portraiture of the past, a revealing exhaustive scrutiny of some momentous event frozen in time for which literature and documentation debating causes and effects already exist. Instead, we will turn an inquiring eye to the future. Allow me to take my medication before I continue, you see I sometimes am afflicted by bigworditis.

Ok, better now. I took my pill and I can keep things simpler. Everyone has been talking this year about   how a physical silver shortage is developing. We can see signs of this all around us. Go to a coin shop and the shelves are bare. Check out the online prices and you'll see that premiums have gone crazy. Starting in about December I began to notice that there weren't as many deals to be had on larger lots of junk silver. People had decided not to sell, or were not selling as much.

Had the well run dry? Those who are secondary sellers of silver rely on constant supply in order to flip their purchases for a small profit. If that supply chain is jeopardized, regardless of the cause... the effect will be that the precious metals products offered for sale will quickly dwindle. That is happening now.

Whether new buyers are entering the market following the most recently engineered takedown, or whether existing buyers are merely doubling down due to this new to be short-lived discount, makes no difference. The result is that supply is disappearing and the price for physical silver, and to a lesser extent gold, is rising.

There have been speeches spoke and articles wrote considering Peak Silver. Are we approaching that point, amidst it, or have already bypassed it? Are we experiencing a mere supply and demand imbalance, where sudden demand has overwhelmed the supply capacity of minting facilities to fabricate enough coins to meet public demand?

Is this the long awaited physical silver depletion that will result in force majeure at COMEX? If you have the answers, and they prove correct, you could position yourself to great advantage in this market and profit handsomely. The point is this. No one knows for certain if this is the real thing or just a precursor, but for those with eyes to see and ears to hear, this recent shortage? The rising premiums and greater and greater delays in shipping times?

This is exactly what the Beginning of the End will look like when it does begin for real. Take heed. If you have fiat in your wallet now, what are you waiting for?


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This Time It's Different

Recently a spate of pundits have appeared in print and on talking head's channels, each solemnly proclaiming that recent price cascades across the boards in all four precious metals officially pronounce that the Gold bull market, or Silver bull markets, are dead. As Mark Twain was once heard to exclaim (and you could include Arnold Schwartzenegger here as well), "reports of my death are greatly exaggerated."

So, too, it should be said, are ominous pronouncements that the bull run in precious metals is over, regardless of whether such proclamations emanate from Mt. Olympus from the deities themselves, or merely from such God wannabes as GoldmanSachs, or those who intentionally release misleading rumors of the imminent sale of Cypriot gold reserves.

Yes, as we've all borne painful witness, those with virtually unlimited means at their behest can move the markets sharply with immense paper selling of ostensibly tangible physical gold and silver. Look the other way and just accept this as gospel, that the paper price equals true price discovery of physical, as ... well, isn't it perfectly reasonable to suppose that more than an entire year's worth of gold production would be dumped in a number of hours on sequential days? What other motive could there be for such tactics? Surely the sellers intended to optimize their profits in the process, right?

This piece is not meant to point fingers at putative criminals, when corroborative evidence (according to the courts and CFTC) is lacking or hard to prove. It is merely intended to make you employ critical thinking. The entire motive of the recent horrendous manipulation is to utterly demoralize silver and gold longs who are not fully convicted that there is no path (long term) for precious metals to trod (in the face of global quantitative easing) other than upwards. On a short term basis, however, they will do their worst to convince you otherwise.

They would have you believe that economies worldwide are upon the verge of recovery; that dollars, yen, pounds, and euros are all healthy and strong, and that those who hold barbarous relics to preserve their purchasing power do so in folly. "This time is different," they will tout... and yet nothing has changed in the dynamics of why silver and gold have been sound, real money investments during the past decade, and will continue to be so in the years to come.

Baron Rothschild is credited with having stated "buy when there is blood in the streets." http://www.investopedia.com/articles/financial-theory/08/contrarian-investing.asp Or, to paraphrase Warren Buffett "buy when others are fearful, sell when others become greedy." http://www.cnbc.com/id/44108052 The value, the intrinsic true worth of physical precious metals has not been destroyed, although their paper price surrogates have been decimated. What has been ruinously injured is investor confidence; that accumulating precious metals is a slam dunk.

Just as they intended.

Listen to those who counsel you to sell all of your silver and gold at your own peril. There is more afoot than meets the eye. Shy away from using margin to acquire these assets, unless you are prepared to lose those funds. Those in power know where the stops are, and they can easily empower massive naked shorting to trigger them, much to your dismay. Those who stack physical metals, not engaging in transitory paper ploys to accrue ephemeral fiat profits, have nothing to fear... their prescience will pay off handsomely in the future.

This time is not different.

Don't let a blip on a long-term chart catalyze you into waves of panic-induced selling. Although at times it can appear a sudden cardiac arrest victim has been lost, you'd be surprised at how fast they can be resuscitated simply if enough joules are applied. Silver and gold, platinum and palladium, are more valuable than precious gemstones. They are jewels that will glitter in perpetuity, long after memories of a once great reserve currency has been laid to rest within its well-deserved grave.


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Hanging Onto Franklin For Dear Life

I started stacking precious metals years ago, after a bad run in the stock market. In fact, it was in 2003. Ah, weren't those the good ole days? Silver was at $4.30 an ounce, gold was at $322. As they say... "if only I knew then, what I know now." But actually, having suffered ruinous losses in the stock market meltdown of 2001, I was all too happy to amass physical, and it was gratifying to see those shiny bits of gleaming real wealth accumulate into piles I could covet; wild fantasies of unimaginable riches rife in my imagination.

But after a few months, I started to grow bored with 90% silver. When I first started stacking, that was my preferred form of silver. I eschewed American Silver Eagles and larger bars, there was just something about holding handfuls of old coins, can considering the history they bespoke, that lent more meaning to owning them... beyond their intrinsic worth and their much ballyhooed ability to retain one's purchasing power in an era of rapidly depreciating dollar value.

So, after hitting up APMEX for a few $1000 face bags of various denomination coins, I began to grow restless. I mean, how many canvas bags can you pile into the closet before you begin to tire of inspecting their contents and assembling multiple coin album sets? I decided to go where no man has ventured before. Franklin Mint silver sets! I can hear the assembly shudder. "Yeh, Jethro," says Mama "the danged fool has up and gone an spent all the shine money on worthless damned doodads!"

In their defense, Franklin Mint has produced some spectacularly designed sets of medals (not coins) over the years, both in sterling (.925 silver) and pure (.999 silver). Their sizes range, for the most part, from smaller pieces up to 1000 grains, although most of the .999 were one ounces. I was able to find them on ebay for much less than the going rate for junk silver, sometimes capturing them for half of their melt value, but always for no more than eighty percent.

The detailed engravings on most of them, the marvelous depictions of historical men, women, and events, are enough to take your breath away if you're lucky enough to own a set or two. Particularly if decapitated presidents have grown passe. There is something for every interest, as these two collaborative collectors   have comprehensively compiled on their remarkable website http://www.franklin-mint-silver.com/

I figured back then that if I was purchasing them for a fraction of their melt value (common at that time) then I wouldn't be hurt holding onto them, despite the fact that they are somewhat despised in numie circles as tawdry "make-a-buck-off-the-unwitting-public" schemes. And that they are sterling, which somehow makes them harder to smelt than less pure junk silver? And thus less valuable? Meh... I'm not buying that.

My reasoning hasn't changed since when I first purchased them, and recent events have made my foresight  seem all the more prescient. Back then, I had decided to buy only those sets produced prior to 1980, and thus before the days when even Grannie's candelabra and heirloom placesettings were being melted http://www.amazon.com/The-Silver-Melt-Henry-Merton/dp/0025843605/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1365372401&sr=8-1&keywords=the+big+silver+melt

Thus, thanks to the indiscriminate melting down of God only knows how many of these finite number of sets, these limited edition albums and chests of gleaming little gems of artisan craft are even scarcer than one might conclude from their frequency of sales on ebay. Some of these sets might actually be becoming downright [b][i]rare[/i][/b]!  Always the redheaded stepchild of stackers, drawing more revulsion than even war nickels, these widely mocked sets may yet have their day in the sun.

Consider two compelling reasons that this could occur.

1) Franklin Mint sets were never issued as currency, nor meant to circulate in any sense as pieces worth bartering. Thus they make an ideal form of silver for hoarding by the crafty as a coyote, under the radar silver stacker who fears that confiscation of silver and gold might someday occur. Should that happen, do you really think they're coming after your Franklin Mint sterling silver set of mini-automobiles too? Really?

2) A wave of counterfeit coins (they've been around for a decade, but only recently seem to be getting acknowledged as they continue gaining more public exposure) is beginning to besiege the silver investment pool. The extent of the production numbers and breadth of coin types being duplicated seems all encompassing, but limited to the extent that they prefer to replicate government issued coinage. Let us indulge in some critical thinking.

What "coins" would be most likely to be scorned by the Chinese in their drive to profit by fabricating faux products? Their main emphasis will be a push into producing the most popular type coins sought after by investors... Morgan's, ASE's, junk numies, etc. They will not try to imitate Franklin Mint 200 piece  medallion sets of locomotives, sailing ships, scenes from the American Revolution, etc, that few consider worth having, as they can much more easily make coin by making coins.

And one more

3) You can always melt it down for its troy ounce content if there are no other buyers around that appreciate it for its own merits when it comes time for you to sell.

So... Franklin Mint sets represent a form of silver that is easy to hoard, under-valued, frequently under-priced, and very possibly the least likely form of silver to ever be counterfeited or confiscated.

I don't think I'll sell mine anytime soon, thank you.


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